Thursday, July 11, 2019

The Age of Turbulence

The book The Age of Turbulence, Adventures in a New World is not your ordinary autobiographical work. Written by Alan Greenspan and published by The Penguin Press in 2007, this book in hardcover form has 505 pages.
Alan Greenspan describes his childhood living in the Washington Heights section of New York City. His parents estranged, primarily raised by his mother's family. Public schools, Julliard for the clarinet. Missing World War 2 with a medical deferment, NYU and Columbia. Playing his clarinet in a band that included Stan Getz. Two marriages, the second to Andrea Mitchell. Work in private financial markets and the eventual appointment as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, succeeding Paul Volcker, to server from 1987 to 2006, serving four Presidents.
Much of the book covers his financial philosophies, what he considers to be important components to successful systems, what does not work and what may come to pass.
Greenspan believes:
  • The United States has succeeded in growth primarily because of adherence to the rule of law in a non-partial way.
  • Financial growth is best in capitalist systems where citizens property rights are protected. Citizens must feel safe to invest effort and property, essentially to take risks, for the benefits of personal growth.
  • Social systems are generally well meaning but not create productive growth.
  • Fabian socialist systems, such as that in India, and now departed from in England, an attempt  of a hybrid capitalist + socialism do not work either.
  • Communism wherever practiced has been a brutal failure. At the time of this publishing, Russian buying power was 1/3 of those industrial economies.
  • The economies of Europe, Japan and United States are all facing zero to negative population growth with the promise of substantial retirement population growth. These economies all need to face harsh realities with regards to social program costs outstripping tax receipts. Most likely a reason why in both Europe and the United States governments are allowing substantial immigration over the objections of citizens.
  • India, with the largest democratic population in the world is unlikely to evolve in a positive way from heavily bureaucratic processes established by Fabian socialism
  • China's growth will subside as the agrarian society converts to an industrial society.
I likes the book very much, took me a long time to read because  little in it was entertaining, but I learned a lot by the effort.

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